Nov 302009

That John Howard has much to answer for is a self-evident truth.

In the case of the Kyoto Protocol, we know his recalcitrance and then dismissal of the Kyoto Protocol was based purely & simply on what the then US Bush administration wanted to happen. That denial of Australia’s national interest in terms of meeting the rest of the world on the Climate Change stage is but one of the black marks to be held against his government.
That aside, I can’t really see the point that Alan Kohler is trying to make when he claims our power bills will rise by 30%. This supposition is predicated upon the price which carbon credits trade for around the globe. The government’s CPRS is keyed to a A$26/tonne price, yet accordingly to Michael Hitchens of the Australian Industry Greenhouse Network, the first full year of operations could see the carbon price peaking around A$35-A$40/tonne. This is way above government estimates, upon which budgetry remediation of consumer cost increases for utilities like power are predicated. Government will be rolling in surpluses, according to Hitchens, but will those surpluses be directed back to the voters? Will those surpluses even eventuate?
There’s all manner of punditry in the marketplace, both informed and uninformed, telling us basically the same things. We’re going to be slugged for what we already have, and receive bugger all benefit for paying more. I’m left wonder if we will be paying anymore at all. Today’s carbon price on the Euro market equates to A$21.48. Well under the government’s budgetry estimates and enormously under those of informed pundits like Carbon Point. Surely, just because a few more nations launch carbon trading schemes, the market’s not going to go berko overnight? Or will it? Maybe everyone is waiting for Australian credits to become available, or is Australian industry really going to need to import foreign credits to continue polluting at a reasonable cost? Either way, you & I, dear reader, can’t do a whole lot about moderating what seems to be inevitable cost increases to the way we live. Unless you’d like to return to the pre-industrial way of life???

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